A hush falls over Lord’s as players take their positions. The scoreboard reads 0 for 0. The 2025 World Test Championship Final Australia vs South Africa, from June 11 to 15 is about to begin. Cricket Recorder gives its verdict: Aussie favourites, but South Africa will push them to the edge. This feels like the year of breaking curses. We’ve already seen Royal Challengers Bangalore clinch their first IPL, and Portugal lift the UEFA Nations League. Will South Africa finally shake off their ICC heartbreaks?
Why Australia Start as Favourites
Recent Form & Momentum
Australia’s WTC cycle has seen 13 wins out of 19 Tests across series like the Ashes, Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka, and New Zealand.. They successfully defended the 2023 WTC title and enter this final with swagger. Their top-ranked ICC Test status and unbeaten series win against top teams show they’re peaking at the right time.
Key Players & Battles
- Usman Khawaja leads run-scoring with 1,422 runs at 41.82 average, including two hundreds.
- Steve Smith brings calm and the ability to anchor.
- Hazlewood (e.g. 57 wickets at 19.7) and Cummins lead a world-class pace attack
Psychological Edge
Australia have a legacy of winning finals ODI, T20, Champions Trophy, WTC and they are used to closing games. That winning DNA counts for a lot in big matches .
Why South Africa Will Push Hard?
Drive to End the Jinx
South Africa have been labeled chokers in ICC events since 1992. Yet their current Test form is strong: eight wins in 12 matches, including streaks over Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and a draw with India . Captain Temba Bavuma, coach Shukri Conrad, and stars like Rabada and Markram believe this is a fresh setup free of past burden
Bowling Firepower
Kagiso Rabada is the Proteas’ highest wicket-taker, with 47 Tests at 19.9 average and 327 Test wickets overall the best average among bowlers over 150 Test wickets . Partnered by Jansen, Ngidi, and Maharaj, their attack is battle ready.
Historical Edge at Lord’s
South Africa have won 3 of their last 5 Tests at Lord’s since 2000, and historically have split decisions reasonably evenly with Australia at this venue.
Weather, Toss & Tactical Levers
Weather forecast for June 11–15 offers early swing, midday runs, spin gain, and late clouds . The toss could decide who gets that vital new-ball session or bat first on a warming pitch.
Toss winners at Lord’s bat first 80% of the time and win 57%, though some captains may choose to bowl if the morning looks swinging . That flexibility means toss is strategic, not decisive but in a tight final, small edges matter.
Head-to-Head & Finals Mentality
Overall, Australia have won 54 of 101 Tests vs South Africa, while South Africa have 26, with 21 draws. In the last decade, recent series are split Australia won at home, South Africa at theirs. But in finals, Australia’s history speaks volumes while South Africa’s ICC-run luck remains untested .
Cricket Recorder Prediction: Australia to Win… but Expect a Fight
Journalistic call: Australia by 3 to 4 wickets or 1–2 innings. They have slight advantages in experience, depth, spin-batting balance, and final-day toughness. But this is no runaway match.
South Africa’s pace attack will strike early. Their batting core Bavuma, Markram, Bedingham, Stubbs can counterpunch. Spinners Mahajan and Jansen will probe cracks as the pitch ages. Toss, swing, spin if the Proteas play smart, patient Test cricket, this could go right to the wire.
The 2025 Season of Breaking Curses
2025 is déjà vu for breaking streaks: RCB claimed their first IPL title this year, rewriting their own history. Portugal went on to win the UEFA Nations League in style. The Proteas are next in line. A WTC win would erase their long ICC drought and reset their legacy.
Final Take: Expect Drama Until the Last Ball
Australia seem poised to defend the mace. They bring form, firepower, and final-day savvy. But South Africa have momentum, belief, and a hunger that comes from heartbreak. Toss and weather offer no clear advantage. In this ultimate test, patience, precision, and temperament will win over flair.
At Cricket Recorder, we expect Australia vs South Africa a close match, edge to Australia, but a legacy-changing performance from the Proteas if they hold their nerve and execute smart, adaptable Test cricket back them for a gambit, but temper it with respect for Australia’s finishing power.
